Hryvnia sets new historic low: dollar rate reaches 45.54 UAH

On 27 October, the National Bank of Ukraine recorded a new historic low for the national currency's exchange rate. The official US dollar rate was set at 45.5382 UAH. This means that the hryvnia has updated its lowest indicators for the entire history of observations for the second time in a row.

Foreign exchange pair dynamics

Compared to the previous day, the American currency rose by almost 34 kopecks, which corresponds to an increase of approximately 0.74%. For clarity: buying 100 dollars at the new rate costs 4553.82 UAH, while at the previous rate it was 4520.21 UAH. The difference exceeded 33 hryvnias. It is worth noting that these are official NBU indicators, and the actual exchange value in bank branches or exchange offices may differ.

The European currency also strengthened against the hryvnia. The euro rate rose by almost 38 kopecks, reaching the mark of 50.9527 UAH.

Impact on consumers and business

The prolonged weakening of the hryvnia creates a risk of increased costs for Ukrainians on imported goods and services, the price of which is pegged to foreign currency. However, the change in the exchange rate is not immediately and fully reflected in store price tags. The final cost of products is also influenced by suppliers' purchase prices, the availability of stock, logistics costs, and the level of competition in the market.

For the economy, the consequences of the exchange rate change are uneven:

• Importers: are forced to spend more hryvnias to purchase raw materials or finished products abroad.
• Exporters: given unchanged foreign currency revenue, receive a larger amount in hryvnias after exchange.
• Manufacturers: enterprises that use imported equipment, fuel, or components simultaneously face rising production costs.

Foreign exchange market prospects

Further dynamics of the exchange rate will depend on the balance of foreign currency supply and demand, as well as the actions of the regulator. The NBU operates on the principle of managed flexibility, which provides for the possibility of exchange rate fluctuations in both directions and the regulator's participation in smoothing excessive fluctuations.

The established record itself does not allow predicting the next exact dollar mark. If the imbalance in the foreign exchange market intensifies, pressure on the hryvnia may persist. Conversely, an increase in foreign currency supply or a decrease in demand may lead to stabilisation or even strengthening of the national currency. These scenarios are possible but do not constitute a specific forecast. For planning financial operations, the settlement date and the actual rate of a specific bank will be important.

Recall that on 19–20 September, the official dollar rate was around 44.66 UAH, and the euro was 51.24 UAH. Earlier, on 6 April, a decrease in the rate was recorded: the dollar fell by 16 kopecks, and the euro by 14 kopecks.