Deal on Russian diesel fails to lower prices and heightens risks for Republicans

Market ignores deal on Russian fuel supply

The announcement of an agreement between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin regarding the export of Russian diesel fuel did not lead to the expected reduction in energy costs. On the contrary, financial indicators indicate a rise in prices. According to The Wall Street Journal, on 13 October, diesel futures rose by 4.5%, reaching their highest level in the past two weeks. This spike occurred just four days after the public announcement of the leaders' agreement.

Market participants surveyed by the publication explain this reaction by stating that the volumes of Russian fuel specified in the deal are insufficient to significantly impact the overall market conditions or lower prices for end consumers.

Deterioration of Republicans' electoral prospects

Against the backdrop of uncertainty over fuel prices, the political situation for the Republican Party has also worsened. According to an assessment by the Sabato's Crystal Ball analytics centre, published on 14 October, the prospects for Republicans were revised in several competitive Senate races. Specifically, the situation changed in Kansas, Nebraska, Mississippi, and New Hampshire.

In Kansas, which is historically considered a Republican stronghold, there is currently no clear favourite. Meanwhile, in New Hampshire, the Democrats' positions have strengthened. The main issue of the 3 November elections remains the fight for control of the Senate. To retain a majority in the upper chamber of Congress, Republicans need to win in at least four of the five competitive states: Kansas, Iowa, Maine, Ohio, and Texas. Currently, all these seats are held by members of their party.

Democrats' plans in case of victory

Analysts also predict that Democrats have a high chance of regaining a majority in the House of Representatives. If this happens, the opposition plans to activate investigative procedures. According to Associated Press, Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries has already ordered the preparation of anti-corruption investigations, which are to concern Donald Trump himself, his relatives, and members of the administration.

In addition, gaining control of the Senate would allow Democrats to block the confirmation of candidates proposed by Trump for judicial positions.