Yuriy Ignat explains reasons for missile shortage for Western air defence systems in Ukraine

Difficulties in distributing limited resources

The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine faces an acute need for ammunition for Western air defence systems. As Yuriy Ignat, Head of the Air Force Communications Directorate, stated in a telethon broadcast, the problem is not limited to Patriot systems but extends to other Western surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems.

The military official explained that the situation is complicated by the need to counter ballistic threats. “This is a very difficult issue… You understand – either there are missiles, or there aren’t… Or there are so few that distributing them towards a certain priority direction is very, very difficult,” Ignat emphasised.

The mathematics of countering ballistic missiles and the impact of the international situation

The officer recalled the scale of recent attacks: the Russians launched 39 ballistic missiles, and a few days later – another 16, most of which were aimed at Kyiv. He noted that effectively shooting down one missile flying on a ballistic trajectory requires two interceptors. According to him, only under such conditions can one expect 95% effectiveness.

Ignat linked the current shortage to geopolitical processes, specifically the state of the war in the Middle East, which is in a frozen state. This makes obtaining new batches of ammunition from partners an extremely difficult task.

“And thus, today’s missile shortage, which was caused, first of all, by the war in the Middle East, which is in a frozen state. Accordingly, receiving missiles from partners now is extremely difficult. Therefore, the crumbs that the Air Force is receiving today – not only missiles for Patriot systems, but also for other systems. We have problems with Western-made surface-to-air guided missiles that are in our service… Therefore, distributing that small resource that can be obtained from one, another, or a third country is very difficult,” the military official stressed.