The continuation of Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries could become a pretext for a direct conflict between Volodymyr Zelensky and Donald Trump. According to Bloomberg, the US leader is increasingly assessing the course of the war through the lens of energy prices, especially ahead of the mid-term elections in the US.
Pressure on Kyiv over energy interests
This dynamic poses serious threats to Ukraine, as the country still relies on the supply of US Patriot air defence systems and intelligence information. According to a source for the publication, during a meeting with the Ukrainian delegation, Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff emphasised that the US remains a reliable partner providing ammunition and intelligence data. At the same time, they warned Kyiv against steps that harm American consumers, particularly strikes on oil refineries.
Several informants noted that these statements were perceived as a veiled threat to stop sharing intelligence information with Ukraine.
Moscow's expectations and risks for Kyiv
Sources close to the Kremlin claim that Russian officials harbour no illusions about the possibility of concluding a final deal under Trump's mediation. Although Moscow was surprised by the sharpness of the criticism Trump directed at Zelensky, Russian informants believe this will not yield real results if the US does not stop the exchange of intelligence data and weapons supplies.
Therefore, Trump's criticism without an actual reduction in military aid — specifically, without restricting the flow of intelligence data or Starlink operations — is unlikely to significantly affect the Ukrainian president's ability to continue hostilities.
Political threats from interference
Meanwhile, as noted in the material, this time Trump could create more serious political risks for Kyiv. This view was expressed by Fiona Hill, who served as the Russia adviser on the US National Security Council during Trump's first presidential term.
«Якщо він почне активно втручатися в українську політику і, по суті, займатися політичною підривною діяльністю, це може завдати значно більшої шкоди» (If he starts actively interfering in Ukrainian politics and, in essence, engaging in political subversion, it could cause significantly greater harm), Hill stated.
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