Russian budget deficit for nine months of 2026 exceeded annual plan by 37%

Nine-month figures exceeded annual forecasts

The Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine published data on the state of the Russian federal budget. As a result of the first nine months of 2026, the deficit amounted to 5.186 trillion rubles (equivalent to $61.08 billion). This figure corresponds to 2.2% of the gross domestic product.

It is noted that the actual deficit value for the three quarters was 37% higher than the volume that the Russian authorities had included in the plan for the entire year.

Dynamics of forecasts and actual figures

At the beginning of 2026, the Russian government assumed a deficit level of 3.786 trillion rubles ($44.59 billion), or 1.6% of GDP. However, as early as September, the Russian Ministry of Finance revised the forecast upwards, setting the expected annual deficit at 7.345 trillion rubles ($86.51 billion), which amounts to 3.2% of GDP.

Increased spending and falling oil revenues

An analysis of financial flows from January to September indicates an acceleration in budget expenditures. Compared to the same period last year, spending increased by 14.5%, reaching 34.825 trillion rubles ($410.19 billion). Revenues, however, grew more slowly — by only 10%, to 29.639 trillion rubles ($349.1 billion).

The most significant reduction was seen in revenues from the oil and gas sector. They fell by 17.2% and stand at 5.471 trillion rubles ($64.44 billion).

Compensation through taxes and future risks

The loss of oil revenues was partially offset by non-oil and gas receipts, which grew by 18.8% to 24.168 trillion rubles ($284.66 billion). In particular, revenues from the value-added tax increased significantly: by 27.4%, to 13.467 trillion rubles ($158.62 billion).

However, according to estimates by the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine, this increase in tax revenues proved insufficient to fully compensate for the decline in hydrocarbon revenues and the rise in expenditures. As a result, the Russian authorities are forced to cover the deficit using accumulated reserves or borrowing.

In the future, the Russian government may resort to additional measures: increasing tax pressure, expanding the volume of national debt, or cutting budget expenditures.