European Commission seeks €70bn for Ukraine amid G7 aid cuts

2027 financial crisis: a €70bn deficit

The European Commission is attempting to extract additional funds from partners in the “Group of Seven” (G7) to cover Ukraine’s budget deficit. According to Brussels estimates, Kyiv will be short by €70bn by the end of next year. This figure accounts for military expenditure following the delivery of the last weapons allocated during Joe Biden’s presidency. The current leader of the White House, Donald Trump, has completely halted direct funding of the Ukrainian government.

Sharp reduction in Western allies’ pledges

Analytics published by the Financial Times indicate a reduction in aid volumes from countries outside the EU. According to European Commission forecasts, allies that are not members of the bloc have currently pledged to allocate only €4bn for 2027. For comparison, this figure was €19bn in 2026.

«Згідно з прогнозом Європейської комісії, союзники України, які не входять до ЄС, наразі пообіцяли виділити лише 4 млрд євро на наступний рік, що значно менше за 19 млрд євро у 2026 році. Як випливає з аналізу, держави G7 – США, Велика Британія, Канада та Японія – сукупно планують надати усього 1 млрд євро» (According to the European Commission’s forecast, Ukraine’s allies that are not EU members have currently pledged to allocate only €4bn for next year, which is significantly less than the €19bn in 2026. As the analysis shows, G7 states – the US, the UK, Canada and Japan – collectively plan to provide just €1bn).

Brussels prepares emergency funding mechanisms

The EU has begun emergency planning to find additional funds to maintain Ukraine’s financial stability in 2027 – in case NATO and G7 partners do not increase aid volumes. Commission officials are examining various mechanisms, including a joint issuance of debt obligations, which will be put to discussion at the summit at the end of November.

In parallel, Brussels is conducting active bilateral negotiations with London and Ottawa. European diplomats are awaiting the publication of the UK and Canadian budgets for 2027, hoping to see new commitments to support Kyiv there.

Europe cannot bear the burden alone

Meanwhile, in Brussels, the possibility of covering the entire deficit independently is categorically rejected. A European Commission spokesperson emphasised that the EU and its member states already account for 80% of all pledged aid to Ukraine for 2027.

«Європа не може самостійно задовольнити фінансові потреби України... Міжнародні партнери також повинні долучитися, зокрема й союзники по НАТО» (Europe cannot independently meet Ukraine’s financial needs... International partners must also join in, including NATO allies), he stressed.

Positions of Canada and Japan

The reaction of partners outside the EU remains uncertain. A spokesperson for the Canadian Department of Finance reminded that Ottawa has taken on commitments for aid to Ukraine totalling CAD 27bn since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022. Regarding future payments, he replied:

«Я не робитиму припущень щодо того, що може, а що не може увійти до бюджету наступного тижня» (I will not make assumptions about what may or may not be included in next week’s budget), he said.

The Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not agree with the European Commission’s conclusions. Tokyo emphasised that the government “cannot make any final statements regarding the possibility of future financial support for Ukraine”.

«Однак Японія розглядає варіанти задоволення фінансових потреб України з огляду на подальший розвиток подій... зокрема й під час консультацій між державами-членами G7» (However, Japan is considering options to meet Ukraine’s financial needs in light of further developments... including during consultations among G7 member states), a Japanese MFA spokesperson stated.

The problem with military funding

In addition to the budget deficit, allies are noting a gap in military aid as well. According to European Commission estimates, 32 NATO states are short by €13bn in fulfilling this year’s pledge to provide Kyiv with €70bn in defence support.