ISW: US released Russian diesel, but Moscow took no steps towards peace

Washington's unilateral concession

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) published an analysis stating that the US has allowed the supply of Russian diesel fuel to global markets. However, according to the experts, Moscow has not offered Washington any reciprocal steps or concessions in the context of negotiations for peace in Ukraine.

Terms of the export deal

On 9 October, US President Donald Trump announced an agreement with Russian dictator Vladimir Putin. The American side cites increasing fuel volumes in the US and other countries' markets as the main objective of the decision.

By presidential order, the US Department of the Treasury issued a temporary general licence that legalises the export of Russian diesel.

Trump emphasised that Russia must immediately supply over 300,000 tonnes of fuel to the markets. A further 500,000 tonnes are expected in November 2026, after which volumes are to increase by another one million tonnes.

In addition, Russian oil refineries are capable of supplying an additional three million tonnes in the short term. Exact figures will depend on the technical condition of the facilities and their potential for expanding production.

Context of the decision

In 2025, Russia accounted for only 9.5% of global diesel fuel exports. On 8 July 2026, Moscow temporarily imposed a ban on its export.

This decision was made against the backdrop of intensified Ukrainian strikes on oil refining infrastructure and logistics chains. Ukraine deliberately targeted fuel supply routes to occupied territories and Russian military units at the front.

Risks to the peace process

ISW analysts warn that the export permission could significantly increase Moscow's revenues and provide it with additional resources to continue the war against Ukraine.

Experts believe that this may also complicate US efforts aimed at ending hostilities. Profits from the sale of petroleum products will allow the Kremlin to continue financing military needs.

The report emphasises that Washington's decision is a unilateral concession. Easing restrictions may bring Russia an economic benefit without securing any concessions from Moscow regarding the end of the war.