ISW: Since September, Russia has lost more territory on the front than it has captured

Slowing pace of Russian military advances

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) published an assessment of the situation on the front, stating that since the beginning of September 2026, the Russian army has suffered territorial losses exceeding the area of land it has captured. Analysts recorded that since 1 September 2026, the Russian Federation has lost 241 square kilometres more Ukrainian territory than it has managed to seize.

Experts note a significant slowdown in the advance of Russian units compared to 2025 figures. Currently, the average rate of advance for the Russian army is only 0.25 square kilometres per day.

Ukrainian counter-offensive operations

Throughout 2026, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have demonstrated the ability to seize the initiative on various sections of the front. The latest example of such activity was Operation Vivaldi in the Lyman direction. During these combat operations, more than 270 square kilometres of territory were liberated, which also led to the disruption of Russian command plans to encircle the so-called "Fortress Belt".

Increasing personnel losses

According to ISW data, monthly losses of the Russian army continue to rise, while the recruitment of new troops fails to keep up with these losses. Since the beginning of October 2026, the Russian Federation has lost nearly 37,000 servicemen. For comparison, for the entire month of October 2025, this figure was 31,270 personnel.

Outlook for Russian leadership

Experts from the Institute for the Study of War warn that in the coming months, the Kremlin may face new difficulties if Ukraine retains the initiative and continues to disrupt Russian offensive plans. In such a scenario, Russian commanders may more insistently request the head of the Kremlin to carry out mobilisation in one form or another.