Payments from the gambling industry may fall by 27% due to the growth of the illegal segment

The state budget risks losing approximately $100 million in 2026 due to the growth of the shadow segment in the gambling market. According to forecasts, official payments from the industry will decrease by 27% compared to the previous year, although a decline in these figures does not necessarily indicate a reduction in demand for gambling.

Financial decline after five years of growth

Journalist Yevhen Plinsky notes that after the regulator of the PlayCity market was transferred under government control, issues of industry oversight and ensuring revenue collection have taken a back seat. Full-fledged online monitoring, which would allow tracking the movement of every hryvnia in the system, has yet to be implemented.

According to data from the State Tax Service, the gaming industry transferred 6.36 billion hryvnias to the budget in the first half of 2026. For comparison, this figure was 9.7 billion hryvnias for the same period in 2025. The annual forecast for 2026 is fixed at 12.7 billion hryvnias, which is 27% less than in 2025, when revenues reached 17.4 billion hryvnias. Thus, after five years of growth in budget revenues from the gambling industry, a decline is expected in 2026.

Shadow market exceeds the legal one

Plinsky explains that the decrease in official figures does not necessarily indicate a drop in citizens' interest in gambling. The main problem lies in the fact that part of the industry is moving into the illegal sector.

According to KANTAR data, the share of the illegal market reached 55.4% in October. The annual volume of this segment is estimated at approximately 60 billion hryvnias. Due to the actions of shadow operators, the state budget loses between 12 and 20 billion hryvnias annually.

Industry potential and reform issues

Representatives of the Gambling Industry Association claim that, provided the government fights illegal operators and continues the reform, the industry could generate 80–90 billion hryvnias in annual revenue for the budget. However, according to Yevhen Plinsky's assessment, these proposals have not yet received adequate attention.