Zaluzhny: After Kherson, Russia shifted to a war of attrition, leaving Ukraine alone

Change in the nature of the war after the Kherson operation

Valerii Zaluzhny, Ambassador of Ukraine to the United Kingdom and former Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, analysed the evolution of Russian military strategy in a column for the publication "Ukrainska Pravda", published on 10 November. In his view, the Kherson operation of 2022 was simultaneously "the beginning of the end of that war in which we and, above all, our partners could fight". Zaluzhny emphasised that at the time, Ukraine was not alone and could theoretically count on something, but by the following summer, the conflict had turned into a war of attrition in which the country was left on its own.

The Ambassador characterised that war as one that is "known only to us and our enemies". He called the Kherson operation the last battle of a "classic and fair war", as its outcome was still determined directly on the battlefield "and not under the rubble of a maternity hospital".

Strategy of attrition and terror of civilians

According to Zaluzhny, it was the Kherson operation that marked the beginning of a new Russian strategy, the key elements of which became the terror of the civilian population and systematic strikes on infrastructure. He recalled that in September 2022, Russia for the first time systematically used missiles against civilian objects, specifically in Mykolaiv, Voznesensk, Kryvyi Rih, Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, and Odesa. The active use of "Shahed-136" drones also dates back to that period, and a year later, robots appeared on the battlefield.

Zaluzhny drew attention to the consequences of the partial mobilisation in September 2022. According to his data, it brought the Kremlin consequences it did not want: over 300,000 conscripts and, in his estimate, at least 700,000 men who left the country. As a result, in the diplomat's opinion, Russia bet on "internal stability" and the commercial recruitment of soldiers with high payments, which means its society "does not actually bear the burden of war".

Geopolitical dimension and the "war for a new world order"

Zaluzhny underlined that the current war has not only a Russian but also a global geopolitical interest. He noted that every missile, bomb, and drone arriving in Ukraine is 90% composed of parts not manufactured in Russia.

«Війна, результатом якої має бути не мир в Україні, а новий світовий порядок, де вже здобутий якимись країнами економічний зріст логічно отримає свій політичний вплив і свої нові сфери впливу. Тому ніякі території Донецької області не вгамують цих апетитів, в тому числі щодо історичної справедливості» (A war, the result of which should not be peace in Ukraine, but a new world order, where the economic growth already achieved by certain countries will logically receive its political influence and its new spheres of influence. Therefore, no territories of the Donetsk region will satisfy these appetites, including regarding historical justice), — Zaluzhny emphasises.

He added: «Тоді, якщо комусь важливі цінності, здобуті кров’ю їхніх дідів, то за них потрібно воювати. Якщо цінності свободи, гідності й демократії вже не важливі, тоді потрібно приймати рішення і від цих цінностей, як і від політичного впливу за них, відмовлятися. Ось відповідь, чому все змінюється, а війна в Україні продовжується» (Then, if values obtained by the blood of their grandfathers are important to someone, they must fight for them. If the values of freedom, dignity, and democracy are no longer important, then one must make a decision and renounce these values, as well as the political influence for them. This is the answer to why everything is changing, and the war in Ukraine continues), — the official adds.

Criticism of negotiation processes and the example of Israel

Zaluzhny expressed harsh criticism of the current negotiation realities. «Ці реалії пропонують замість трибуналу вигідні угоди і взаємну торгівлю. Вони намагаються повторити те, що було 30 вересня 1938 року у Мюнхені» (These realities offer favourable deals and mutual trade instead of a tribunal. They are trying to repeat what happened on 30 September 1938 in Munich), — he claims.

In his words, Ukraine is being forced to hand over territories, not war criminals to a tribunal, which could lead to "gas chambers and concentration camps" on these lands. Zaluzhny is convinced that the war will end only when the new division of the world into spheres of influence is completed.

As an example, he cited Israel, which, according to him, has been in a state of war since 1948 and has "learned not only to survive but also to live" under these conditions.