Demographers predict global population decline after peak in the 2050s

The global population is likely to reach its historical peak in the 2050s, after which a long-term process of population decline will begin. Demographers note that low fertility rates, previously characteristic mainly of advanced economies, are now spreading to developing countries.

Replacement rate has fallen in most states

According to the Financial Times, in more than two-thirds of the world's 195 countries, the fertility rate has fallen below the level required for simple population replacement. This level is 2.1 children per woman.

The situation is deteriorating particularly rapidly in countries that have not yet reached a high level of prosperity. For example, in Thailand, there are only 0.78 children per woman. If this figure persists, the country's population could shrink to critically low levels. In Mexico, the fertility rate has halved over the past 25 years, reaching approximately 1.2 children per woman in 2024. Similar trends are also observed in large African cities.

Demographic decline will become a multi-generational process

Economist Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde stated in a comment to Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung that this process should not be viewed as a temporary phenomenon. In his assessment, population decline will be prolonged and last for many generations.

The researcher predicts that the peak of the global population will occur in the 2050s. The greatest threat is the ageing of society in states that have not managed to accumulate sufficient economic resources. Mexico and Thailand, for example, will face rising costs of social protection for an ageing population, but their financial capabilities will be significantly smaller than those of Germany or Japan.

Digitalisation and economic factors influence decisions to have children

Researchers identify several key reasons for the decline in fertility. In addition to economic crises, high housing costs, and financial instability, a change in the lifestyle of young people plays an important role.

A study by the University of Cincinnati indicates that the spread of smartphones and active internet use lead to young people spending increasingly more time online, reducing live social contacts. This may affect decisions about starting a family and having children.

If current trends persist, in the second half of the 21st century, the world may face not an overpopulation problem, but a mass population decline and rapid societal ageing.