ISW: Russia intensifies mechanised assaults on Dobropillia and Kostiantynivka axes

Increased intensity of combat operations in the east

The Russian army has intensified pressure on the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Donetsk Oblast, relying on mechanised assaults. According to assessments by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the enemy's main efforts are concentrated around the cities of Dobropillia and Kostiantynivka.

Details of attacks on the Dobropillia axis

On 13 November, an attempt by Russian troops to launch a mechanised offensive towards the village of Khruske, located north-east of Dobropillia, was recorded. A Ukrainian military source and an OSINT channel reported that the enemy deployed three tanks, three infantry fighting vehicles, and more than ten light vehicles for this purpose.

Ukrainian Armed Forces managed to repel this attack. On 14 November, the commander of a Ukrainian regiment fighting on the Dobropillia axis stated that during the repulsion of the enemy, seven vehicles and three all-terrain vehicles were destroyed. According to him, approximately 30 Russian servicemen were wounded or killed. Presumably, these figures relate specifically to the assault in the direction of Khruske.

Activity in other sectors of the front

Another mechanised offensive by Russian troops was detected on the Druzhkivka axis. Geolocated footage from 11 November shows the occupiers using several infantry fighting vehicles and light transport. Additionally, on 13 November, a Ukrainian source reported the deployment of Russian heavy equipment directly in the direction of Dobropillia.

It is worth noting that Ukrainian military personnel had warned about the enemy's preparation for such attacks since mid-September. Among those who signalled the threat was the commander of the 1st Corps of the National Guard of Ukraine, "Azov", Brigadier General Denys Prokopenko.

Using poor weather as a tactical tool

ISW analysts point out that Russian troops are attempting to take advantage of autumn weather conditions to advance. Fog, strong winds, and rain reduce the effectiveness of Ukrainian reconnaissance and strike drones.

This gives the occupiers the opportunity to move equipment closer to the front line, deploy infantry, or attempt to break through the defence. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces continue to destroy Russian equipment before it reaches the forward positions.

Destroying equipment deep in the rear

Geolocated footage of the mechanised offensive in the direction of Druzhkivka on 11 November shows destroyed Russian infantry fighting vehicles near Nova Poltavka. This settlement is located south-west of Kostiantynivka, approximately 10 kilometres deep in the Russian rear.

According to analysts' estimates, the ability of Ukrainian forces to strike equipment at such a distance from the front line indicates the depth of the strike zone in this sector. ISW also suggests that Russian troops could have used a temporary cessation of fire on the broader Kostiantynivka axis to safely transfer heavy equipment closer to the front line and avoid strikes by Ukrainian drones.

Attack statistics according to the General Staff

Data from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine also indicates that these two axes are priorities for the Russian command. According to Ukrainian command information, on 13 and 14 November, Russian troops carried out 47 attacks on the Pokrovsk axis, which includes the Dobropillia sector. This is the highest number of assaults there since the beginning of November.

During the same period, another 11 Russian attacks were recorded on the Kostiantynivka axis. In total, since the beginning of October, approximately 80% of all Russian offensive actions against the Ukrainian "fortress belt" have been concentrated on the Dobropillia and Kostiantynivka axes.

In the opinion of ISW analysts, this confirms that this section of the front holds particular significance for the Russian military command.