Climatologist forecasts mild winter for 2026-2027: short frosts, warming to +10°C

Climatologist forecasts mild winter for 2026-2027: short frosts, warming to +10°C
Climatologist forecasts mild winter for 2026-2027: short frosts, warming to +10°C

The winter season of 2026–2027 in Ukraine will likely be noticeably warmer than the previous one. According to climatologist Vazira Martazinova, prolonged frosts are not expected, and during certain periods, thermometer readings will exceed multi-year averages by several degrees. Warming to +10°C is possible towards the end of winter.

The scientist detailed the forecast for the coming months in an interview. Vazira Martazinova is the chief scientific researcher at the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute of the State Emergency Service and the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, a Doctor of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, and a professor.

The calculations were performed based on a proprietary climate model of large-scale atmospheric circulation, developed specifically for the central regions of Ukraine. The results indicate that warm weather will prevail during winter, despite the possibility of short-term frost episodes.

November: Comfortable weather without prolonged cold

The last month of autumn, according to the expert's assessment, will pass without prolonged cold spells. Relatively comfortable weather with positive temperatures will prevail.

During the day, the air may warm up to +6…+7°C, while nighttime temperatures will be around +3°C. Only during specific cold snaps is a drop to -3°C possible.

The scientist does not expect significant precipitation. However, the appearance of snow is not ruled out in the second half of November.

Nevertheless, a stable snow cover is unlikely to form. According to the forecast, positive temperatures will persist during the day until approximately 10–11 November, preventing the ground from freezing. Under such conditions, snow will melt quickly.

December 2026: Warming to +9°C after minor frosts

The beginning of the calendar winter may be accompanied by a slight cooling. Weak frosts are possible in some areas during the day, while thermometer columns may drop to -5…-6°C at night.

However, overall, December, according to Martazinova's calculations, will be significantly warmer than usual indicators for this period.

Even at the end of the month, temperatures may exceed +5°C, reaching +9°C on certain days.

Due to the prevalence of warm air, precipitation will fall in a mixed form. Instead of typical winter snowfalls, rain with snow is possible.

January 2027: Contrasts from frosts below -10°C to warmth

The first month of the new year may bring more noticeable temperature contrasts than December.

Around mid-January, the climatologist allows for several cold days. Nighttime air temperatures may drop below -10°C.

However, according to her forecast, this period will not be prolonged. A sharp temperature increase is expected closer to the end of the month.

During the day, the air may warm up to +6…+7°C. Moreover, relatively warm weather is capable of lasting for almost ten consecutive days.

Thus, after a short-term frost period, the temperature background will again become significantly higher.

February 2027: From cooling to near-spring weather

The last winter month may also be marked by variable weather conditions.

Following the January warmth, a further temperature drop is forecast for the beginning of February. During the day, it will fluctuate between -3 and 0°C, while at night it may drop to -6…-7°C in some places.

During this period, warmer and colder days may alternate. Despite the fluctuations, temperature indicators will generally remain within the climate norm.

In contrast, the situation may change significantly in the third decade of February. According to Martazinova's calculations, it is then that processes characteristic of spring weather will begin.

Temperatures may exceed usual values for this time by 6–7 degrees. During the day, mostly +5…+7°C and above is forecast, with warming to +10°C possible on certain days.

Nighttime frosts are also expected to weaken. Even during the coldest periods, temperatures, according to the forecast, will not drop below -3°C.

Outlook for spring 2027

Despite the possible early arrival of spring warmth, one should not expect its rapid and final establishment.

As Vazira Martazinova explained, in recent years, the spring season in Ukraine has often been prolonged.

After the first noticeable warming, a long period of relatively cool weather may follow. Therefore, the beginning of spring processes will not yet mean consistently high temperatures.

It was previously reported that the winter of 2026–2027 in Ukraine, according to preliminary forecasts, will be 1–2 degrees warmer than the climate norm. Meanwhile, short-term intrusions of Arctic air are possible, which will cause cooling. Due to frequent temperature fluctuations near zero, meteorologists forecast an increased risk of ice, wet snow accumulation, and freezing rain.

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