Kuleba: Euphoria over AFU's autumn 2022 successes hindered Ukraine's search for peace

Opportunities for diplomacy in autumn 2022

Former head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Dmytro Kuleba expressed the view that at the end of 2022, there was a theoretical window for establishing contact with Moscow to cease hostilities. According to him, September and October of that year were considered potential times for an attempt at an agreement.

Obstacles: public mood and ideology

At the same time, Kuleba noted that the implementation of this scenario was blocked due to the prevailing mood in society. After the successful liberation of part of Kharkiv Oblast and the right bank of Kherson Oblast, including the regional centre, a wave of optimism was observed in Ukraine.

«Зараз говорять, що наприкінці 2022 року був шанс укласти угоду з Росією. До речі, я згоден: можна було спробувати. Але як спробувати, коли в суспільстві панує ейфорія: ще трохи — і ми відіграємо 300 років нашої історії, покараємо москалів? У суспільства горять очі: кордони 1991 року. Влада вчинила так само, і я теж горів цією ідеєю. Як за таких обставин сказати суспільству: "А тепер ми домовляємося про припинення вогню"?» (They are saying now that there was a chance to make a deal with Russia at the end of 2022. By the way, I agree: it could have been tried. But how to try when euphoria prevails in society: just a little more — and we will reclaim 300 years of our history, punish the Muscovites? Society's eyes are burning: 1991 borders. The authorities acted the same way, and I was also burning with this idea. How to tell society under such circumstances: "Now we are agreeing on a ceasefire"?) — the former minister emphasised.

Assessment of negotiation prospects

Despite acknowledging the existence of an opportunity, Kuleba is convinced that even an attempt to reach an agreement in September–October 2022 would not have led to a result. He added that by the end of that year, the situation on the front line had begun to gradually change against the Ukrainian forces.

Previously, the head of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Mark Milley, had stated the expediency of holding negotiations during this period. He characterised that time as the most favourable moment for reaching agreements between the parties to the conflict.