ISW: Russia may launch winter attack on Ukraine's energy sector earlier than usual

Russia has likely already begun this year's campaign of mass strikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure earlier than is traditionally the case. Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believe that this tactic allows Moscow to inflict maximum damage before Kyiv can develop and implement new countermeasures.

Rhetorical preparation for escalation

The ISW report notes that the Russian Ministry of Defence has already formulated the main information line. Its aim is to justify the future intensification of attacks on Ukraine's critical infrastructure in the autumn and winter of 2026–2027. The Russian agency claims that these actions are a response to numerous Ukrainian attacks on civilian objects on Russian territory, which, according to Moscow, have been ongoing since June 2026.

ISW experts interpret this rhetorical campaign as preparation of Russian society and the international community for a new wave of large-scale strikes. Analysts specifically emphasised that such statements are intended to legitimise the intensification of attacks not only on energy but also on other critical infrastructure.

Strategic shift against the backdrop of frontline defeats

According to analysts' assessment, Ukraine's successes on the battlefield in 2026 appear to be forcing Russian dictator Vladimir Putin to review his initial plan for achieving victory. Instead of relying exclusively on troop advances, Moscow seems to be placing greater emphasis on long-range strikes on Ukrainian territory during the winter of 2026–2027.

«Ця кампанія ударів має на меті зробити життя цивільного населення в Україні нестерпним, щоб Україна капітулювала перед вимогами Росії» (This campaign of strikes aims to make life for the civilian population in Ukraine unbearable so that Ukraine capitulates to Russia's demands), the ISW document states.

Tactics of striking weakened targets

The Institute recalls that Russia has carried out similar systematic attacks against Ukraine's energy sector every winter since the 2022–2023 season. However, according to ISW data, Moscow may begin attacks earlier this time. This will allow it to strike the already damaged energy system before Ukraine can strengthen its defence against new Russian ballistic missiles and jet-powered drones.

Against the backdrop of forecasts regarding a new Russian campaign, Ukraine continues to conduct long-range operations against Russian oil infrastructure.