ISW: Starshield glitches led to reduced effectiveness in intercepting jet-powered drones

ISW analysis: impact of satellite communication glitches on defence

In a report published on 26 October, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) examined in detail the state of Ukraine’s air defence system in the context of technical problems with the Starshield satellite network complex, known as the “military Starlink package”. Analysts noted that while the overall effectiveness of destroying enemy jet-powered unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) remains high, a slight decline has been observed precisely during the period when disruptions in satellite communication began.

Dynamics of interception rates

According to the research data, between 14 and 24 October, the percentage of jet-powered drones shot down decreased from 77% to approximately 74%. The document emphasises that access to the Starshield network is critically important for successfully intercepting high-speed targets. It was specifically jet-powered drone interceptors that proved to be the most effective tool in the arsenal of Ukraine’s defence forces for countering this type of threat.

Alternative methods and their limitations

In addition to specialised UAVs, Ukraine uses F-16 fighter jets to destroy jet-powered drones. ISW analysts note that the use of aviation involves two main scenarios: firing with expensive missiles or using onboard cannons. The second option requires exceptional skill from pilots and carries risks of aircraft damage and to the safety of the pilot themselves.

The report also mentions turrets installed in Kyiv to neutralise jet-powered drones. However, experts point out that the available means are insufficient, and their deployment across the entire territory of the country requires time and resources.

Prospects for air defence development

The ISW analysts concluded that the integration of drone interceptors into Ukraine’s air defence system is the best opportunity to create a reliable protective barrier. In their assessment, it is this approach that is capable of ensuring a consistently high level of interception of Russian jet-powered drones in the long term.