The Economist: risk that Putin escapes trial and Moscow avoids reparations

The Economist published an analytical piece warning of a real threat: Vladimir Putin may never stand before an international court for crimes committed during the war against Ukraine, while Russia may avoid paying reparations for the damage caused.

Doubts about a just peace

During the Helsinki Security Forum held in October, experts discussed the prospects for ending the conflict and the possibility of holding the Kremlin accountable.

According to The Economist, a former US official who recently met with senior Russian representatives in Moscow expressed doubt about the possibility of achieving a just peace. In his view, Moscow may retain control over parts of Ukrainian territory, and Putin may never face trial in The Hague.

Other forum participants with contacts in Russian political circles stated that Russian elites have no intention of paying Ukraine reparations for the war damage.

Limited isolation of the Kremlin

The Economist notes that despite Russia's full-scale invasion and war crimes, Putin continues to maintain international contacts.

Specifically, US President Donald Trump has invited the Russian dictator to the G20 summit in Florida in December. Putin may also count on the favourable attitude of the leadership of China and India.

In the authors' view, this indicates the limited nature of Russia's international isolation.

Meanwhile, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany are more actively discussing the need to review their approaches to Moscow. Previously, the strategy of Western allies was to prevent a Russian victory, support Ukraine's defence capabilities, and intensify sanctions pressure.

However, economic restrictions and internal discontent in Russia have so far failed to force Putin to abandon his aggressive policy.

Danger of a ceasefire without guarantees

According to The Economist, Russia continues to launch missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian cities, intensify sabotage activities in Europe, and threaten the West with nuclear weapons.

A ceasefire without reliable security guarantees may allow the Kremlin to regroup its troops, restore military resources, and prepare for the next aggression.

At the same time, the authors warn that European states cannot demand that Ukrainians continue fighting solely for Europe's security if Ukraine itself decides to agree to peace on difficult terms.

Therefore, one of the main tasks for European allies must remain the maximum strengthening of Ukraine.

The authors of the piece suggest that preventing a complete Russian victory may become the only real punishment for Putin for the war he unleashed. Meanwhile, the prospect of his personal accountability and the payment of reparations to Ukraine remains uncertain.