President's statement on new threat
On 17 October, Volodymyr Zelensky informed about the Russian Federation's intentions to deploy ballistic missile launchers on Belarusian territory. The head of state emphasised that such activity by Moscow is aimed at increasing pressure on Ukraine, particularly on the country's western oblasts.
According to the President, the Kremlin seeks to more actively use Belarusian territory for attacks. Currently, relays are already deployed there, which provide support for strikes using drones. In Zelensky's opinion, the next logical step could be the deployment of ballistic weapons. The implementation of these plans depends on whether Oleksandr Lukashenko provides support.
Expert analysis: change in strike geography
Military and political commentator Oleksandr Kovalenko explained in a comment to the publication "Slovo i Dilo" that the use of Belarusian territory would allow Russia to expand the geography of ballistic missile use. This means that new threat vectors will emerge for Ukraine's security. The exact time of projectile arrival will depend on the specific locations of the missile systems.
Regarding Kyiv, there are potential additional risks. However, Zelensky did not name the city as a specific target for future shelling in his statement. Without confirmed data on missile types and their exact deployment coordinates, it is impossible to reliably assess how the level of threat to the Ukrainian capital will change.
Impact on shelling intensity
The appearance of new launchers does not guarantee an automatic increase in the number of missile strikes. Such infrastructure only expands technical capabilities for launches. The actual intensity of attacks will be determined by the state of missile stockpiles, logistical support, and decisions by Russian command.
At the same time, the potential combination of launches from the northern direction with attacks from other directions could significantly complicate the operation of Ukraine's air defence systems.
Potential nature of the threat
The scenario of new ballistic strikes from Belarusian territory currently remains potential. Official reports on Moscow's intentions do not confirm that additional systems have already been deployed and are in a state of combat readiness.
Previously, there were reports about the construction of a military facility near Minsk, which experts linked to the possible deployment of the Russian "Oreshnik" system. There was also an assessment by the Ukrainian Foreign Intelligence Service regarding the deployment of this weapon in Belarus, which was primarily associated with pressure on European countries. These aspects should be distinguished from current discussions about the possible deployment of additional systems for strikes on Ukrainian territory.
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